For most Australian retailers, the weeks immediately following Black Friday and Cyber Monday bring a sense of relief: Sales are strong, cash flow is healthy, and operations begin to settle after the chaos of peak trading. But this moment of calm is precisely when many brands make one of the costliest planning mistakes of the year.
Pat Bolster, Australia country manager at Wayflyer – the inventory and business financing provider – warns that the period between early December and mid-January can become a hidden danger zone for retailers that rely on manufacturing in China and Southeast Asia. That’s because of the Lunar New Year.
“When you come off that peak sales period, you have this sort of hangover period, where you’re celebrating your successes, you’ve got all this cash in your bank, but then ill-planning makes you miss those cut-off dates as factories close for the holiday season,” he says.
Next year, Lunar New Year falls on February 17, with a seven-day public holiday in China from February 16 to 22. Factories typically extend closures to several weeks. Production stops, communication becomes near impossible, and shipping bottlenecks intensify in the lead-up to the break.
“Basically, you want to be discussing with your factory at the beginning of December what their timelines will be,” Bolster says.
The danger of assuming you have more time
Factories often begin scaling back operations weeks before the official break, and the rush to get stock on the water results in an overload of shipments.
“A lot of people look at Lunar New Year as one week, or the few weeks around it,” Bolster says. “But the planning for it begins from the start of December.”
Missing these early order windows can have severe consequences. Bolster recalls a medium-sized Australian retailer that believed it had ordered early last year by submitting production requests in early January. But with the Lunar New Year falling unusually early, the factory was already at capacity, fulfilling much larger orders for global brands.
“They thought they were early, but the factory already had much larger orders they needed to fulfil,” he says. “Stock needed in March or April was pushed to May or June, resulting in a significant loss of sales – and an excess of stock at the end of winter that had to be marked down.”
Seasonal overlap and competition for factory priority
Australian retailers face another challenge: Their autumn and winter ordering cycles overlap with the northern hemisphere’s spring and summer production.
“A smaller Australian retailer ordering 10,000 T-shirts might be impacted because if a brand like Gap goes and orders 10 million, which order is the manufacturer going to focus on first?” Bolster says.
Retailers selling seasonal categories are particularly at risk. If orders are delayed, they enter the season with only evergreen stock.
“If you head into a new season with only your evergreen stock, you will almost certainly miss out on sales to competitors who are better organised,” Bolster says.
Deposits and supplier relationships matter more than ever
Factory relationships and payment terms now play a growing role in securing production slots. Recent high-profile collapses have made manufacturers more cautious, with many demanding deposits before commencing production.
“Paying a deposit for orders earlier in the cycle encourages better supplier relationships,” Bolster says. “If you come in a little late, they may prioritise you because you’re able to pay your deposit upfront.”
He adds that smaller Australian retailers often maintain strong relationships with factories because they show commitment: Visiting in person, communicating consistently and paying higher deposits.
Why flexible funding matters during planning crunch periods
This shift in factory behaviour has contributed to rising demand for non-traditional financing solutions such as Wayflyer.
“The reason a lot of our customers use our funding is not only so they can get those strong discounts, but also to strengthen their relationship with manufacturers,” Bolster says.
Wayflyer provides working capital with a fixed fee repaid through a percentage of sales, or via a fixed daily or weekly repayment over six to nine months. Repayments flex with revenue.
“Aligning repayments with actual sales performance means risk is balanced,” Bolster says.
Avoid the post-BFCM hangover
With many Australian retailers entering December flush with BFCM cash, Bolster’s message is clear.
“You can’t take your foot off the gas in terms of preparation after BFCM,” he says. “You need to be getting orders in with your Chinese factories in early December to avoid being out of stock come February.”
