The retail industry has spent years training customers on how the sales season works, gradually increasing discounts in the weeks leading up to Black Friday. Last year, however, consumers waited until the last minute for their peak-season bargains, putting huge pressure on retail supply chains.

The 2025 peak retail season delivered record volumes, but as consumers grow more confident in delivery reliability and discount cycles, the peak-purchasing cycles don’t always align with past patterns. 

Australia Post delivered a record of almost 111 million parcels during the November and December 2025 peak season, marking a 7.6 per cent increase on the previous year. This included the postal service’s busiest delivery day ever, with 3 million parcels on December 8.

The lessons from last year’s peak retail season can help guide retailers trying to plan and operate fulfilment networks in 2026. According to new research from supply chain consultancy Prological, a quarter of director-level and senior B2C retail decision-makers now identify omnichannel transformation as a top strategic priority. The finding, drawn from Prological’s Supply Chain Pulse Check Survey 2026, which interviewed more than 200 supply chain leaders, reflects growing recognition that traditional peak season workforce models may no longer align with how consumers shop.

Prological MD Peter Jones explains that rather than the gradual build-up of sales throughout November that retailers had come to expect, spending remained relatively flat until the third week of the month before spiking sharply in the final week – far higher than previous peaks.

Referring to Australia Post’s strengthened delivery performance following four to five years of large-scale network upgrades, Jones said consumers now have the confidence to wait longer before purchasing, knowing items will still arrive in time. Based on Prological’s work with several retail clients during 2025’s peak period, orders placed during the sales spike were being delivered within two to three days across major metropolitan and regional areas.

“Customers now understand that discounts deepen as you get closer to Black Friday, and with Australia Post delivery times becoming very reliable even during peak, there’s less incentive to buy early due to delivery anxiety, and more incentive to buy later, because the discount will likely be higher. The delivery variable is no longer the transport piece; for many businesses, it is now the order to dispatch timeframe that sits on the service promise critical path.”

The change in purchasing patterns created workforce-planning challenges for retailers trying to resource appropriately during the 2025 peak season. Jones says many businesses recruited and trained casual staff in September and early October in anticipation of the expected gradual sales build-up from early November. 

“When that early sales volume in the lead-up to Black Friday failed to materialise, some casual workers moved to other employment. The subsequent late-month surge then placed pressure on fulfilment operations that were no longer staffed at anticipated levels.”

Developing efficient processes for omnichannel operations is one of many challenges retailers are facing. Prological’s Pulse Check Survey also indicated that the majority of retailers (85 per cent) carried out projects in 2025 to reduce carbon footprints, and over half felt pressure for their business to accelerate sustainability initiatives. Businesses are balancing competing priorities, working to meet conflicting customer expectations around speed and service, and reducing carbon emissions.

The data suggests a widening gap between evolving consumer expectations and the operational infrastructure required to successfully meet them. Australia Post’s record figures – including 3075 parcels delivered every minute on average throughout the peak period and more than 2 million deliveries daily for over 30 consecutive days – suggest that last-mile delivery has adapted, but retailers are still working to get their upstream fulfilment operations to meet the same levels of demand.

Jones observes that many retailers are operating their automated systems well below capacity, typically on one to two shifts, when the infrastructure can support two or even three shifts during peak periods. He estimates that many retailers with high levels of automation have spare capacity of 33 per cent to 50 per cent that could be activated to manage volume spikes without needing to rapidly scale and train a temporary workforce.

“There are 24 shift periods in a week. Most businesses utilise between five and 10 of those 24 possible shifts throughout most of the year.

“Retailers are learning that seasonal demand patterns have shifted,” Jones said. “The businesses investing in automation infrastructure that can scale efficiently during peaks, rather than relying primarily on workforce expansion, are positioning themselves to serve customers reliably regardless of when purchasing spikes occur.”

“This approach of building automation into operations allows businesses to be prepared for multiple different outcomes. They no longer need to play the game of guessing when peak purchasing will strike, because they have the systems and technology to respond and scale quickly when it happens.”

• Prological’s Supply Chain Pulse Check Survey 2026 is available here.