nanza. Several big-league retailers, including Best Buy, Target and Walmart, have already started offering Black Friday-related promotions on October 31, November 6 and November 13, respectively. Similar to how pumpkin spice season has started creeping in earlier and earlier every year, even going so far as to begin in August this summer, companies have been pushing up promo deals to make up for an increasingly difficult retail atmosphere. While the Black Friday shopping season is typically one that has every retailer jumping for joy, this year, it looks like there will be more coal than cookies for retailers and consumers alike. But let’s rewind a bit. How exactly did Black Friday morph from a singular, in-store shopping fest to a month-long, digital-driven shopping extravaganza Inside Retail connected with retail veteran Chris Kaufman, the co-founder and former chief creative officer of StockX, to get further insights on the switch-up. Additionally, Kaufman provided a glimpse into his crystal ball for what retailers can expect to experience in the lead-up to November 28. The “death” of Black Friday Kaufman told Inside Retail that the ‘day’ has essentially become an entire season, with retailers following a playbook of sustained value and careful execution. “The real spike moved online, with last year’s Black Friday driving about $10.8 billion in US e-commerce spending and Cyber Monday reaching a new record of $13.3B,” he said.  “In-store foot traffic still sees a significant lift versus a typical Friday, but it’s become more unpredictable YoY. Which is pushing many retailers to plan for a week-long omni-channel surge, including shipping from stores, curbside pickup and mobile checkouts rather than a single morning/day of door control.” To put it quite plainly, the Black Friday rush didn’t die – it morphed. Today, Kaufman noted that success means not only holding “real” discounts for the core window, versus the “baby” deals leading up to the actual shopping weekend, but also ensuring that shopping is as seamless for the consumer as possible. This includes providing the optimal mobile experience from browsing to buying, offering a streamlined buy now, pay later (BNPL) experience and making sure that buy online, pick up in store/curbside order fulfilment is carefully executed so you’re not at the mercy of shipping delays and potentially aggravating shoppers. “The true winners treat the period as a strategic program, not a flash sale,” said Kaufman. He pointed to companies like Amazon, Walmart and Temu as consistent “winners” of the Black Friday shopping period. Over the past few years, he explained that Amazon and Walmart have continued to do a good job blending early digital deals with quick fulfilment and store pickup. Additionally, both brands have seen strong holiday momentum as consumers pursue value and convenience. Sites like Temu have also found success during this shopping period by staying relentlessly price-driven. While retailers like Best Buy and Target have performed well in the past, they have seen softer sales in recent years, despite spikes in traffic. In Target’s case, the diminished sales stem from a multitude of factors, including strategic missteps and brand damage resulting from its pullback on DEI initiatives. The common thread for success amongst the “winners” is maintaining disciplined, strategic promo execution with low-friction mobile experiences and order fulfilment. Those lagging behind are the retailers that have relied on single-day doorbuster deals or those that couldn’t maintain their price-value sharpness, especially in comparison to the offers provided by competitors. The overburdened American consumer This year’s iteration of the Black Friday shopping season is likely to bring more macro friction than usual, Kaufman warned. “Trump’s tariff policy is in flux, and as of this week, the administration has signalled that a broad rollback is unlikely anytime soon. That uncertainty alone can significantly lift costs, especially in categories like electronics, toys and fast fashion, which could force retailers to choose between margin and conversion.” In addition to tariff-related price concerns, Kaufman also warned retailers to factor in the impacts of the federal shutdown, which, at the time this article was written, had been ongoing for over 35 days. With Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies possibly lapsing and the potential loss of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for millions of Americans, the holiday shopping mood will certainly be dampened for lower- and middle-income spenders, who are the foundation of promo-driven sales. “We can expect higher price sensitivity, challenging planning around tariff-exposed categories, value messaging on mobile, where we’ll see a lot of the volume, buy now, pay later to combat budget anxiety and careful planning around store-level fulfillment to offset freight and logistics interruptions. Essentially, plan for uneven demand and more elasticity tests than last year.” Strategies for “winning” Black Friday 2025 One way retailers can stay ahead, Kaufman advised, is through AI-driven pricing and merchandising, which will help maintain steady margins. Based on a research report done for the 2025 Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM), Power Digital, a California-based marketing firm, provided three takeaways for retailers to keep in mind: Consumers want more than blanket discounts. While percentage-off promos still work, nearly half of the shoppers surveyed say that other factors, such as bundle deals and loyalty perks, will influence their BFCM decisions this year. Tactically, retailers should consider layering promotions, such as limited early drops for loyalty members, mid-season bundles or perks that reward engagement, and high-intensity messaging in the final days. Brands that rely on a single three-day push risk missing entire segments of demand, while those that sequence these efforts across the BFCM season will maximise both volume and equity. Gen Z is a $6B opportunity hiding in plain sight. An estimated 20 million Gen Z consumers will shop BFCM this year, fueling over $6 billion in spend, which means brands will lose out if they fail to capture this young consumer. However, retailers need to keep in mind that this demographic shops differently, with TikTok serving as their version of Google and creators driving trust more than retailers themselves at times. With 42.5 per cent of Gen Z shoppers confirming that TikTok is their most useful platform for BFCM shopping, as confirmed by eMarketer, executives must allocate budgets to optimising TikTok search and content. Retail executives should also prioritise relationships with trusted content creators, structuring them not only as one-off sponsorships in time for the shopping season, but as long-term brand extensions that build consistent trust. Aggressive markdowns create long-term risk. Power Digital warned that while steep price cuts may boost a company’s Q4 revenue, it could ultimately erode pricing power and brand equity over time. Be strategic with how low you’re willing to go with BFCM product pricing. The firms advised retailers to avoid the reflex of offering deeper discounts and instead focus on providing value-added options that make the consumer feel like they are getting an elevated deal, even when the price cut isn’t substantial. Ultimately, as retailers prepare for a hectic BFCM season ahead, they must be prepared to stay sharp with pricing and marketing tactics, or risk being left behind. Further reading: Your week-by-week guide to Black Friday and Cyber Monday success