of SNAP benefits. It was well above the estimated retail-specific inflation of about 1.4 per cent for October.  So far, total shopper visits to shopping centres have been up 1.9 per cent YoY this holiday season, despite the estimated outperformance of e-commerce. This exceeds last year’s 0.7 per cent holiday increase and reflects retail resilience and sustained physical retail demand.  This is all without including sales statistics from the last big shopping event of the year, Super Saturday, a last-minute dash to find presents, in-store or online, on the last Saturday before Christmas.  Earlier this week, the US’ National Retail Federation (NRF) released its predictions for Super Saturday, forecasting that a record 158.9 million shoppers will make purchases on Saturday. This number is up from 159.2 million last year, and surpasses the previous record of 158.5 million estimated shoppers in 2022. On December 18, Coresight Research dropped a report breaking down several notable shopping patterns over the course of the 2025 shopping season, as well as some of the retail industry’s biggest winners and underdogs. 2025 US holiday retail homestretch  Unexpectedly strong despite October headwinds This October and November, the retail industry saw consumer sentiment weaken, in large part due to the government shutdown, the longest in US history, which lasted 43 days. The shutdown affected the incomes of government employees and recipients of SNAP benefits, as well as higher-income consumers who sustained retail expansion over the course of 2025. Given these headwinds, 4.5 per cent year-over-year growth in retail sales this October, per Coresight Research’s analysis of Census Bureau data, was a very strong result. Retail outperformers and those playing catch-up “The story so far in holiday 2025 has been a continuation of the major structural winners in US retail – particularly, discount/dollar formats, off-price, warehouse clubs and Walmart, as wary consumers face still-elevated inflation and consumer sentiment proves volatile,” said John Mercer, Coresight’s head of global research. According to Coresight Research’s consumer surveys, Walmart was the most-shopped retailer in 2025, overtaking Amazon, which led in sales during the year prior.  To date, Walmart’s same-store shopper visit numbers have been up three per cent this holiday season, ahead of Target’s 0.7 per cent same-store visit decline.  Notably, Walmart continued to note strength with higher-income shoppers in its third-quarter report, partially thanks to added-value services, such as rapid delivery, and membership offerings, like Walmart+. Coresight Research’s findings also revealed five of the 10 most-shopped retailers this year were discount formats, including Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, TJ Maxx, Dollar General and Five Below.  To put this in perspective, last year Dollar General and Five Below did not even make the top 10 list. Sam’s Club, Ross Stores and Costco have also experienced noticeable growth, with a 6 per cent, 7 per cent and 8 per cent spike in same-store shopper visits compared to the same period a year prior. The apparel retail sector as a whole has performed surprisingly strongly this season, with a 6.2 per cent YoY rise in holiday-to-date store traffic.  The solid sales growth period was reflected in revenue growth at a 4.8 per cent increase in total number of specialty retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch (4 per cent competitive growth in the Americas in Q3 2025), American Eagle Outfitters (11 per cent competitive growth at Aerie in Q3 2025), Dick’s Sporting Goods (5.7 per cent competitive growth at the Dick’s banner in Q3 2025), Gap Inc. (7 per cent competitive growth at the Gap banner, 6 per cent competitive growth at Old Navy in 3Q25) and Urban Outfitters, Inc. (competitive growth of 8 per cent in Q325).  American Eagle Outfitters, Dick’s and Gap were among those to raise Q4 expectations or their overall fiscal year 2025 guidance.   However, despite the growth seen this year, Coresight Research also noted a few retailers that still need to play catch-up. For instance, while Kohl’s and Macy’s reported improving top-line momentum in their latest quarters, both chains are still losing share to major peers, and their same-store shopper visits have been flat (Kohl’s) or meaningfully negative (down 5.2 per cent on a same-store basis at Macy’s).  Target also saw a slight decline in shopper numbers recorded in our survey, with an average of 25 per cent of holiday shoppers buying in Coresight Research’s weekly surveys, versus 30 per cent last year. Target’s overall in-store visitation has declined by 0.7 per cent year over year.  End-of-year shopping expectations for 2025 “Our initial expectations for holiday 2025 were that inflation would accelerate; that consumers would shop early; and that higher-income consumers would disproportionately drive retail expansion,” said Mercer. “Data for October, when sales should in theory have been dented by weak consumer sentiment and uncertainty, suggest that total holiday-quarter sales growth will likely exceed this projection.” If Coresight Research projections are confirmed, total retail sales growth should be 3–3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, creating a nice cushion for retailers to rest on as we push forward into 2026.  Further reading: Cyber Monday sales surge despite economic malaise