predictable result of a consumer environment that’s been souring since early 2026. The confidence collapse continues Roy Morgan’s tracking data gives Myer’s excuses weight. The June quarter recorded a “record” quarterly low of 76.7 on the group’s confidence index, down 15.5 points on the prior quarter and well below the previous record low set in the September 2020 pandemic quarter. Consumer confidence specifically sat at 74.7 in June and was “virtually unchanged” at 75.6 in July, still far under the neutral benchmark of 100. Retail trade sentiment fared even worse, hitting 66.5, the third-lowest reading on record for that sector. This is precisely the window Myer flagged as its weakest. Wirth pointed to a “material downturn in consumer sentiment” in June and July following a comparatively stronger May, and blamed compounding pressures including three calendar-year interest rate rises, Middle East-driven fuel price spikes and an unseasonably warm winter that hurt cold-weather apparel sell-through. None of these is unique to Myer. They are macro forces that Roy Morgan’s data shows were battering the entire retail trade sector simultaneously. A sector-wide pattern Myer isn’t alone in citing the operating climate as a breaking point. A string of retailers, from digital-first players to established bricks-and-mortar names, have announced closures in recent weeks, many pointing to the same combination of rate hikes, tax changes flagged by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in the May budget, and supply chain disruption. Department store peers have shown comparable warning signs earlier in the year, reinforcing that Myer’s second-half deceleration reflects a category-wide reset rather than a failure of execution. A new consumer paradox The nuance is in how consumers are actually behaving, and this is where Myer’s promotions run into trouble. Shopfully’s research found that 67 per cent of shoppers deliberately spread their spend across multiple retailers to chase value. In comparison, 60 per cent believe their purchasing power won’t improve this year, and 39 per cent are now delaying purchases until major sale periods. That data reframes Myer’s own admission that its promotional push“has not been sufficient to offset weak underlying consumer spending.” Shoppers haven’t stopped responding to discounts – discount-chasing has simply become the default, diluting the impact of any one retailer’s campaign and compressing margins across the board, the same mechanism visible in Myer’s falling gross profit line. Shopify’s transaction data further complicates the doom narrative. Australian EOFY digital spend rose 16.9 per cent year-on-year, concentrated in the apparel, personal care and healthcare categories. Shopify’s Shaun Broughton framed this as “necessity-driven consumption.” Shopify’s research added that 68 per cent of shoppers now prefer bricks-and-mortar, up sharply from 41 per cent last year, even as 63 per cent research products online first. The consumer has become more channel-promiscuous, more research-intensive, and less loyal to any single format or brand. This dynamic hurts a legacy department store group mid-integration more than it does a nimble digital native. What the divergence reveals Myers’s own half-on-half split makes the timeline unmistakable. First-half underlying NPAT rose 21.7 per cent on a pro forma basis to $51.7 million, a period that aligns with RoyMorgan’s comparatively firmer confidence readings. The second half’s deterioration lines up almost exactly with the record-low June quarter and the accelerating“record” lows Roy Morgan documented.  The strategic narrative Wirth offers, record loyalty engagement, a new retail media platform, marketplace integration and store network optimisation, is not disproven by the weak half. But it does suggest Myer is executing a genuine transformation into a headwind rather than a tailwind, competing for increasingly fragmented, value-hunting spend at the exact moment the broader confidence data shows Australian shoppers pulling back hardest.