Retail growth to slow

arrowRetailers should make the most of the shopping boost resulting from lower petrol prices while it lasts.

That’s the suggestion from Deloitte Access Economics’ latest retail forecasts report.

The consultant anticipates a slower rate of spending by the end of 2015 as the nation’s economic fundamentals come home to roost.

Deloitte partner, David Rumbens, says 2014 was the strongest year for retailers since before the global financial crisis, despite a decade high jobless rate and painfully weak wages growth.

Such strength has spilled over into the early stages of 2015, buoyed by an interest cut and the “bowser boost”.

“But these improvements may not be strong enough to keep retail growth running at current speeds when the impetus from low interest rates and accelerating house prices wears off,” Rumbens says.

He said relying on cheap credit getting even cheaper is not a sustainable basis for a healthy rate of retail spending, while also noting building imbalances in the housing market.

He forecasts real or inflation adjusted retail spending for 2014/15 to grow by 3.4 per cent after the solid 3.1 per cent in 2013/14.

However, this may prove to be the peak with retail growth of 2.3 per cent predicted for 2015/16.

Spending over the past year has been most felt in NSW and Victoria – the nation’s two strongest housing markets – with growth across the rest of nation amounting to just 0.9 per cent.

AAP

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