Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 has finally ended, and the results were positive. A consumer survey conducted by the US National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics revealed that a record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day holidayf weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. A large jump from NRF’s previous prediction that 187 million people were planning to shop during this period. NRF’s findings also revealed that consumers turn
s turned out in droves for both in-store and online shopping throughout this year’s five-day shopping period. A total of 129.5 million consumers shopped in-store, up 3 per cent from 126 million in 2024. Online saw 135 million shoppers, up 9 per cent from 124 million last year.
Nearly 96 per cent of those shopping during the 2025 BFCM period made a holiday-related purchase, spending an average of US$338 on items such as gifts, holiday apparel, decorations, and other seasonal purchases. This figure is up from US$316 last year and is the highest figure since 2019’s record of US$362. Approximately 67 per cent (US$225.74) was spent on gifts this past weekend, marking a rather enthusiastic holiday shopping spirit despite concerns about tariffs and the cost of living.
As retail analyst Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, told Inside Retail, “This increased level of spending tells us that the consumer is not hibernating and that the retail economy is not in recession. However, the patterns of trading did reveal some underlying cracks.
“Consumers dug deep on Black Friday, but they were selective in their spending and largely stayed within their budgets. The new reality is that dollars stretch less far than they once did, and consumers have adjusted to that.”
Winners and losers of BFCM 2025
Saunders remarked that this season’s BFCM results revealed some polarisation between the retail “winners” and” losers”, ultimately showing that there was not enough growth to satisfy all retailers participating.
Anand Kumar, Coresight Research’s associate director of retail research, noted that the primary “winners” of this year’s BFCM season were those that most clearly showed the best value-proposition deals, along with having full shelves and fully engaged associates.
“Retailers like Macy’s, American Eagle, Aritzia, Sephora, Best Buy and Ulta drew heavy traffic thanks to these traits,” said Kumar.
“Even premium retailers like Vans and Ralph Lauren, who experienced lighter traffic this year, maintained strong presentations and high customer service.”
While not technically a “loser” in the grand scheme of things, Kumar observed that Target had subpar in-store attendance. This was mainly due to low festive energy and limited staff availability, resulting in lower engagement despite fully stocked shelves.
“This was a clear indicator that locations that did not capitalise on the holiday spirit reaped the consequences and further instilled that limited staff availability was a main contributor to people leaving stores empty-handed.”
Ultimately, the only true “loser” of the 2025 BFCM shopping season was the shoppers themselves.
Data from the customer relationship management platform Salesforce confirmed that online order volume in the US actually dropped by 1 per cent year-over-year (YoY) this Black Friday, while average selling prices increased by 7 per cent.
Additionally, Salesforce found that units per transaction dropped by 2 per cent YoY, while online discount rates remained flat on Black Friday 2025 compared to 2024 rates, with average discount rates peaking at 28 per cent in the US and 27 per cent globally.
“Black Friday delivered an important signal for the US economy. On the surface, sales were strong, hitting US$18 billion, a 3 per cent jump YoY. But with the average selling price for goods climbing seven per cent, US shoppers continued to feel the bite of inflation,” said Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce.
The true “winner” during the 2025 BFCM season was the one thing retailers have either embraced with open arms or been rather reluctant to integrate – AI.
As confirmed by location analytics platform Placer.ai, AI agents influenced US$14.2 billion in global Black Friday e-commerce sales, helping shoppers navigate limited discounts, inflation and rising prices.
With order volumes down but prices up, shoppers leaned on AI for price comparisons and smarter deal discovery, reshaping how they allocated their budgets.
Additional BFCM 2025 findings
Interestingly, Klaviyo’s 2025 BFCM Recap Report revealed the tactics that actually helped create this year’s record-breaking sales figures.
Despite fewer discounts being offered, Klaviyo’s analysis of same-site sales across more than 183,000 brands showed that AI-powered discovery, stronger loyalty programs and smarter cross-channel execution were the real engines of BFCM performance this year.
This year, AI-powered shopping personalisation surged, with product recommendations increasing 68 per cent YoY and generating a 71 per cent lift in revenue. The brands that used personalised onsite pages saw shoppers view 2.4 more pages per visit, deepening product discovery without relying on heavier promotions.
Klaviyo’s report also revealed that cross-channel shoppers, who were reached out to via both email and SMS, made up the highest-value audience. These shoppers viewed 71 per cent more products, added 34 per cent more items to their carts, and placed 11 per cent more orders than single-channel shoppers.
Not to mention that brands that used text message marketing witnessed a revenue increase of 25 per cent YoY, further validating the need for retailers to continue spreading BFCM messaging across multiple channels.
Moving past the BFCM season into the EOY retail season
As we head into the end of the year, retailers will still need to stay on their toes to keep up with holiday shopping needs, including Christmas and Hanukkah, as well as more generalised gifting opportunities like white elephant parties and office secret Santa events.
“Clear value messaging combined with refreshed holiday floor plans and stocked shelves will be essential for retailers to keep momentum going as shoppers continue to expect deals past Cyber Monday. Leaning into omnichannel features such as BOPIS and mobile checkout while combining strategies to avoid promotion fatigue will help retailers convert late-season demand,” concluded Kumar.
Further reading: The death of the traditional Black Friday: how retailers can adapt