The higher-than-anticipated increase in June retail sales should have sparked a sense of relief among Australian retailers, which have experienced a prolonged period of disruption in recent years, from the ongoing cost-of-living crisis to the supply chain changes caused by US tariffs. But as economists have been quick to point out, underneath the 4.9 per cent year-on-year growth reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week, there is still a great deal of uncertainty and price-
ce-sensitivity in the market.
Much of the June growth was driven by increased spending during EOFY sales, indicating a new trend in consumer behaviour, where shoppers are timing their purchases to coincide with the biggest discounts and sales.
Richard Stevens, CEO of Zyft, an AI-powered price comparison tool, calls it the “wait to spend” mentality.
“Following a relatively flat trading period in May, the bounce back in June, driven by EOFY sales, clearly illustrates the current ‘wait to spend’ consumer behaviour trend,” he said.
“Instead of spreading their spending out across the year, shoppers are strategically aligning their purchases to major sales events.”
While discounting has always driven consumer spending, Stevens believes the behaviour is becoming more pronounced and more frequent.
He noted that a similar pattern occurred last December, when trading fell 0.1 per cent month on month despite the festive gift-giving season, while November rose 0.8 per cent month on month, suggesting shoppers front-loaded their spending around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
He also noted that spending on cafes, restaurants and takeaway services fell by 0.4 per cent in June compared to May, potentially indicating that shoppers are deprioritising little luxuries like coffees and lunches out in favour of higher value, strategically timed purchases, particularly for discretionary items.
However, Stephanie Atto, research and strategy director at Monash University’s Australian Consumer & Retail Studies (ACRS), said it’s too soon to say whether “little treat culture” is truly on its way out.
“This is a moderate shift only and not an established trend at this point; therefore, we do not see it as the end of ‘little treat culture’ for now,” Atto told Inside Retail.
“Instead, other conditions may be at play, such as rebalancing the budget to account for increased spending in other retail categories due to EOFY sales,” she said, noting that all other retail categories, including household goods and department stores, increased in June.
She also suggested the winter weather could be a factor, as people stay indoors more often, “particularly on those cold and rainy days”.
Nevertheless, she confirmed that the ACRS is seeing evidence of the “wait to spend” trend in consumer behaviour.
“Indeed, many shoppers are strategically delaying purchases in anticipation of sales events, especially EOFY and Black Friday. In addition to the influence of marketing strategies and a desire for better value and lower prices during sales events, this trend is further being driven by cost-of-living pressures,” she said.
“We expect to see this trend continue, with a peak in November driven by Black Friday sales, which now typically run for the entire month.”
What does this mean for retail sales, and crucially, profit margins in the second half of 2025? Stevens suggested there will be opportunities and pitfalls.
“While the ‘wait to spend’ mentality creates a minefield for forecasting and inventory management, the shift in consumer behaviour also opens clear avenues for retailers to gain a competitive edge,” he said.
“Today’s savvy shopper is using available tools to make value-driven purchase decisions long before they walk through the store door. Retailers who proactively engage shoppers across digital touchpoints, harness AI to deliver personalised experiences and promote transparent pricing will be the ones that win out on loyalty in the long run.”