In the past few days, many Australians’ Christmas plans have been thoroughly disrupted in the past few days by another Coronavirus cluster outbreak, this one particularly impacting the Eastern Seaboard. Unsurprisingly, it will be a quieter festive season this year, with fewer people hosting or attending events, according to Illluminera’s recent study, Project Hearth, which focused on the changes in at-home consumption behaviour during the pandemic, such as baking and cooking. Fifty-five per
e per cent of consumers suggested that Christmas would be different this year than prior years, typically quieter, even though many clearly expressed the need to celebrate the end of a trying 2020. Cluster virus outbreaks are likely to curtail the Christmas and summer socialising plans of many.
Despite consumer sentiment levels being at record highs in early December for the first time since July 2019, according to DBM Consultants and other sources, as well as better-than-expected retail spending in late 2020, consumers are still exercising caution in social environments. Meanwhile, toilet paper panic buying has made a comeback on Sydney’s northern beaches, a dominant source of the current outbreak.
Project Hearth data identified that people are shopping in-store less often, with supermarket trips dropping typically to a once-a-week shop. Shoppers are also stocking their pantries in order to cook with more leftovers in mind (indicatively, the average weight of purchase per trip has thus increased). This behaviour is likely to stick beyond the current cluster coronavirus outbreaks and into 2021 as vaccine distribution moves forward. This is because consumers indicated they have found more time to plan, prepare and cook dishes, often cooking in bulk, which is not only efficient, but also enjoyable – something that they wish to retain.
Looking beyond the summer season, there have been a number of benefits of the pandemic that consumers would like to continue into the future, the primary one being time. Now that less people are commuting to work every day, there is less rush and more time to spend with family and cook. One of the key determinants of the likelihood of retaining these desires into the future is the prevalence and frequency of working from home. In late October, 46 per cent the survey respondents were working from home, somewhere between occasionally and all the time, versus 30 per cent pre-Covid. This can be expected to continue to some extent, as many consumers may not return to the ‘office’ on a full-time basis, with a number of recent reports suggesting office staff are looking for a maximum three-day week in the office and two to three days a week working from home.
One of the ongoing impacts of working from home is on snacking. Earlier in the pandemic, the respondents in the Project Hearth report were snacking not only more frequently but more indulgently – out of boredom and needing a break but also as a treat as a result of not being able to go out. However in the past few months, in a bid to lose the resulting ‘Covid kilos’ and because many now realise working from home s likely to become an ongoing proposition for the foreseeable future, consumers are pragmatically seeking out healthier snacking options rather than reduce snacking frequency.
It will be interesting to observe how the early pandemic indulgence and later-pandemic shift to healthier options will play out over the festive period, which typically skews to enjoying puddings, desserts, confectionery and ‘entertaining’ categories such as salty snacks. As consumers are currently looking to both less indulgent options and to less socialising, theoretically, this would indicate a more subdued festive season for traditional snacking and indulgence categories.
Let’s see how it plays out. Merry Christmas, all – however you wind up spending it in the most recent of disrupted occasions this year.