It seems that every time you turn around a new coffee shop opens or an existing chain announces that it is expanding, often into a foreign market. In Inside Retail alone there have been more than 30 stories involving coffee chain expansions so far in Asia Pacific in 2023, placing coffee easily among the leading drivers of growth in food and beverage retail floorspace — not just in this region, but around the world. Just about all of the world’s leading cafe chains have been involved in
lved in the treasure hunt, along with a lot of retailers that would like to be among the world’s leading chains, but are not there yet.
One that has just pushed its way in there, Cotti Coffee, has seen astonishing growth from a standing start in 2022 to more than 5,000 units and counting, although to be sure it has the advantage of China for its home market.
Depending on how tightly you define a coffee chain, that would make Cotti arguably the fifth-largest in the world, surpassing Paris Baguette and trailing only Starbucks (almost 34,000), Dunkin’ (more than 13,000), Luckin (over 10,000) and Tim Horton (5,500). Cotti has only just launched outside of China, with two stores each in Seoul, Jakarta and Tokyo, and three in Toronto. The chain’s growth is being closely monitored and reported on by this publication.
Other chains are eying up the foreign markets around them in Southeast and East Asia and some already have a foothold. Chains with big ambitions in the area that recently opened outside their home countries include Bacha (from Morocco, now with stores in Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong), Costa Coffee (now owned by Coca Cola, launching in Japan), Zus Coffee and Old Town White Coffee (both from Malaysia and both opening in the Philippines), Fore Coffee (from Indonesia, opening in Singapore), Tanamera Coffee (also Indonesian, opening in Malaysia), and Compose Coffee (from Korea, opening in Singapore).
Bear in mind that in Asia, another driver of expansion is the fact that there are a lot of independents and the dominant chain in one market could be a bit player in another. For example, in Vietnam, by far the biggest number of stores are operated by Highlands Coffee, which has upward of 600 locations, while Starbucks only just crossed the 100 threshold. The sight of a neighboring country with perceived white space in the market makes executives of coffee chains lick their chops.
Coffee isn’t a commodity anymore
With all the expansions though, is there just getting to be too much? Are we going to see some of these chains crash and burn in foreign markets, or at least beat a retreat? Certainly, coffee drinkers tend to be parochial in their tastes, somewhat habituated, and loyal to their provider of first choice. (The early foray of Starbucks into Australia, followed by an unseemly retrenchment, is an example of what can happen.)
If coffee were still a commodity, then the outlandish growth wouldn’t be possible. But it is no longer a commodity, it is a highly differentiable product, with a huge suite of bean profiles, complementary products, price points and café experiences.
The latter range from the huge Starbucks locations that act as shopping centre anchors and flexible workspaces for legions of professionals and students, to the leafy rain forest-themed restaurants of Café Amazon, to some that are not even cafes at all in the traditional sense, but high-tech vending machines.
One of them is JumpStart Coffee in Indonesia, and of course it prefers not to call its vending machines ‘vending machines’ but rather ‘smart coffee bars’. The machines are able to dispense iced and hot coffee in 20 different varieties.
The proliferation of different specialty coffees is made possible partly by sourcing different beans that are grown in different soils, climatic conditions and altitudes, by sourcing different varietals (‘cultivars’), and by using different roasting methods.
Coffee beans, it turns out, are nitpicky and this offers the opportunity for producers to turn out coffee beans with different flavors and nuances, much like wine. Indonesian coffee grown in volcanic soil and at high altitude isn’t the same package as Thai arabica coffee grown at varying altitudes in the Golden Triangle area, or the robusta plantations at low altitude in the south.
Broadening tastes
One of the big stumbling blocks for coffee chains trying to launch in a new region is simply that tastes differ and you need to differentiate in a way that consumers will find acceptable and novel. Every country has its own coffee ‘culture’ and, as noted, there is a degree of parochialism about it.
However, that parochialism is breaking down for the very reason that differentiation has become supercharged. A coffee drinker who ignores the multiplicity of options on the market today would be like the wine buff who won’t drink anything but 2020 chardonnay.
Indeed, coffee is now something for the hobbyist, perhaps not on the same level as wine and home-brewed beer but nonetheless moving in that direction with aficionados mixing different types of beans to taste and experimenting with different ways of preparing it at home.
So, no, the market for coffee in most Asian countries has not by any means reached saturation point yet, but the continued expansion of chains at the rate we have seen in recent times will be increasingly propelled by differentiation rather than meeting raw demand.
Of course, there are varying degrees of differentiation, and there are some that readers might be a bit squeamish about, such as Indonesia’s famous Kopi Luwak, which is coffee brewed from the beans that are partially digested and then ejected through the rear end of a civet cat. Enthusiasts say the cat’s processing enhances the flavour: it must do something, because Kopi Luwak is reputed to be the world’s most expensive coffee.