Thailand’s excessive dependence on tourists to inflate its retail sales numbers is becoming ever more apparent as the big retailers and mall operators report results for the year to date. Tourism in Thailand is down this year, having approached but failed to match or surpass pre-Covid levels, and this is starting to dent some top lines. This week, it was Thailand’s Central Retail Corporation’s turn to bite the bullet. Central is the retail jack-of-all-trades that operates both retail brand
l brands and malls in Thailand, Vietnam and Italy. It reported a wobbly set of results for the second quarter of the year, tarnished by declining sales in Thailand and by appreciation of the Thai baht against the Vietnamese dong and the euro, which caused the revenue from its Vietnamese and Italian operations to decline.
Total company revenues fell by 0.8 per cent, year on year, to 62.64 billion Thai baht, with only food sales, which rose by 3.1 per cent, and rental income from its lifestyle malls in Thailand and Go! malls in Vietnam (up 1.6 per cent) returning positive top-line results. In its fashion and hardlines segments, things didn’t go so well. Sales were down 1.3 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively, despite higher store counts. Food accounted for 40 per cent of sales, hardlines 32 per cent and fashion 28 per cent.
Geographically, Vietnam has typically been a weak link, but now the malaise has spread to Thailand. Central pointed the finger at a year-on-year decline in tourism arrivals (-4.7 per cent in the year to date) and elevated consumer debt, among other culprits.
During the second quarter of 2025, Central went ahead with its expansion and upgrade of both its store fleet and mall portfolio, with three new Tops supermarkets and eight Tops Daily mini-supermarkets opening in Thailand. In Vietnam, the company opened a new GO! mall in Hung Yen in July, and has a second one on the launch pad in Yen Bai due to open later in the year. Central also opened new specialty stores in both countries during the quarter.
By the end of the first half, Central operated a portfolio of 85 department stores, 87 home improvement superstores, 702 Tops supermarkets, 41 hypermarkets, 13 wholesale warehouses under the Go Wholesale banner, and numerous specialty retail brands across the spectrum of merchandise categories, totalling 3822 sales locations in all.
Same-store sales still on a downward trajectory
The openings throughout the 12 months somewhat mask the continued retreat in same-store sales, which have fallen by 5 per cent across the company’s portfolio so far this year, following a similar pattern from 2024. The negative growth has become embedded in all three of Central’s merchandise segments. While total food sales grew by about 3 per cent in the second quarter, same-store sales fell by 4 per cent. It was worse in hardlines, with same-store sales down by 8 per cent, and in fashion, down by 6 per cent.
The stagnation in the food segment is concentrated heavily in Vietnam, where same-store sales at its Go! hypermarkets, Tops and Lanchi supermarkets retreated by 12 per cent. In hardlines, same-store sales were down 22 per cent thanks to continued struggles at its beleaguered Nguyen Kim appliance chain. Nguyen Kim, in hindsight, may have been a strategic misstep: Central acquired a 49 per cent stake in the chain 10 years ago and bought out the rest to become sole owner five years later. But a banana skin is a banana skin, and under Central’s ownership, it has fallen even further behind its competitors.
A patchy mall business, too
Central Retail operates 75 malls in Thailand and Vietnam, with nearly 780,000sqm of leasable area. The malls are smallish and tend to be located in second-tier or infill markets. They operate under the Robinsons Lifestyle and Tops Plaza banners in Thailand and Go! in Vietnam. Rental income from these was up 1.4 per cent for the first half of the year, compared with the first half of 2024, but only with the help of three new openings over the 12-month period.
There is low-hanging fruit in the mall business in Vietnam. Like Vincom, Vietnam’s biggest mall operator, Go! Malls has a chronic vacancy problem: occupancy across the 42-mall portfolio is stuck at 83 per cent, a number that, to most shopping centre professionals, is pretty awful, particularly when it isn’t budging. The problem with vacancy is not just that it limits consumer choices, it also causes dark areas and hoardings in large areas of a mall that bring down the ambience. Shoppers like to have elevated spirits when they go to a mall and empty shop spaces don’t lighten the mood.
Profits down
Gross profit margin on sales in the second quarter was down slightly compared with a year ago, to 25.7 per cent. Profit after tax fell by 31 per cent to 1.24 billion baht.
‘Fragile resilience in persistent uncertainties’
The company attempted to cushion the weaker revenue performance in its analyst presentation with the somewhat clunky headline “Fragile resilience in persistent uncertainties”. Apart from the weaker-than-expected tourism picture – international arrivals were down 12.2 per cent in the second quarter alone, a massive number for an economy so dependent on foreign visitors – Central also blames a loss of business confidence due to the tariff situation and high household debt that has remained elevated since a borrowing binge during Covid.
In Vietnam, though, there should be no excuses: The economy there is set for 8 per cent growth this year and retail sales were up 9.3 per cent in the first half of 2025. Interestingly, while tourism hasn’t been able to reach pre-Covid numbers in Thailand, in Vietnam, it has exceeded them. This is important and has grave consequences for the Thai economy: There are signs across the region that neighbouring countries are now taking a bite out of Thailand’s tourism pie.
Still, as much as companies like Central might complain about tourist numbers to Thailand in the short-term, since much of their retail sales growth has occurred in tourist-oriented regions of the country in the past couple of years, they won’t be too worried about a long-term change for the worse…just yet.