ats and common sense suggest that online might end up closer to 15 to 20 per cent of total retail, with wildly differing percentages in individual categories. Let’s start with where we are now. Probably the most balanced and comprehensive view of online sales in Australia comes from the Australian Government Productivity Commission Report released in November last year. The report estimated that in 2010 eCommerce was six per cent of total retail spending, compared to eight per cent in the US and 11 per cent in the UK. Aussie online sales were predicted to grow by 10 to 15 per cent annually for the next three years. If, as the Productivity Commission notes, “Australia lags overseas countries such as the US and the UK in terms of online share of total retail sales by two to three years”, we can get an even better idea of where things might be headed. Forrester Research expects that US online sales will be nine per cent of the total in 2016. And data provided by Kansas City based digital agency VML* states that in the US eCommerce “has the potential to reach 15 to 20 per cent of total retail sales over the next decade”. Last July, Urbis (quoted in an AMP report) also estimated that “online retailing will ultimately capture a maximum of 15 per cent of the total consumer retail market in Australia”. Urbis added, however, that 44 per cent of that total will be “click and collect” – order online, pick up in store. Of course, the number changes dramatically dependent upon the category. The Productivity Commission notes that online share of groceries and alcohol sales domestically may be as low as one per cent right now, while 12 per cent of CDs, DVDs and hi-fi accessories are accessed via the web. Citi Investment Research goes as far as to quote “non-food” numbers – with an estimate of online at 9.5 per cent of Australian non-food retail sales. Perhaps the most telling number of all is what percentage of sales leak to overseas websites. Both the Productivity Commission and Citi reckon about 30 per cent of total online sales go to international sites such as Amazon and Asos. In researching this column, I asked a number of experts for their input. Ian Jindal, founder of InternetRetailing in the UK, believes the search for percentages is meaningless. “Our obsession with channel metrics would be entirely acceptable if we were operations or infrastructure professionals… however… our focus should be the customer and her behaviour.” Jindal urges us to think omni-channel. “When all store sales are influenced by web research, and all web sales are either targeting the store (for collection), or inspired by an early store experience, then we need to move from considering the ‘channel of purchase’ to considering the ‘channels of influence’ and how to weave these into a persuasive and sustained narrative for our customers.” Jindal makes a good point. But for retailers with real-world stores, it’s surely good to be able to benchmark your online performance, and to know where dollars might be leaking – particularly if they’re going offshore. Which is why it would be good to have some official data collection, as in the US and UK. In fact, one of the Productivity Commission recommendations says that the “ABS should monitor and report online expenditure both domestically and overseas”. I’ll leave the final word to Jindal. What’s the magic number? “The answer ranges from 0 to 100 per cent”! Jon Bird heads up specialist retail marketing agency IdeaWorks, and is Chairman of Octomedia, publisher of Inside Retail. Email Jon.  jon.bird@ideaworks.com.au Blog: www.newretailblog.com Twitter: @thetweetailer *VML is part of the Y&R Group, of which IdeaWorks is also a member.