Australian dollar falls
The Australian dollar has fallen Thursday, buying 68.45 US cents from 68.93 US cents on Wednesday.
Yesterday, the local currency edged up from six-week lows as inflation data proved a shade firmer than forecast.
The Aussie crept up to 68.84 US cents on Wednesday, after earlier touching a trough 68.62 US cents.
Some sort of bounce was overdue given the currency has fallen for eight sessions in a row, the longest losing streak since 2015.
The Aussie got a rare lift after data showed consumer prices rose 1.6 per cent in the year to June, a fraction above forecasts.
Bears had wagered on a weaker number and were forced to cover short positions in its wake.
Underlying inflation remained uncomfortably low at 1.5 per cent and well short of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2.0 to 3.0 per cent, underlining the case for recent cuts in interest rates.
Investors reacted by pairing back the chance of another cut in the next month or so, but a move to 0.75 per cent was still priced as an 84 per cent probability by October.
“We continue to expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its meeting next week,” said Ben Udy, an economist at Capital Economics.
“We think that current stimulus will prove insufficient to turn the tide on the economy so underlying inflation should ease further in coming months. That’s why we expect the RBA will cut rates to 0.5 per cent by early next year.”
Adding to the pressure for action is the rush by other central banks globally to ease policy in the face of trade worries and a slowdown in manufacturing.
The Federal Reserve is thought almost certain to cut US rates by a quarter point later on Wednesday and to leave the door open to further stimulus if needed.
Anything less than a dovish statement would tend to boost the US dollar and weigh on the Aussie
Australian three-year government bond futures eased a tick to 99.200, but that was from a record peak.
The 10-year contract was also just off an historic high at 98.7950.
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