By 2020, the majority of commerce will be conducted on digital platforms, with transaction volumes exceeding US$1 trillion, according to Alibaba’s research arm, Aliresearch.
Releasing its Digital Economy 2.0 report at the second annual Vision 2046 summit in Beijing earlier this week, Aliresearch laid out a number of big claims about the future of retail.
By 2036, Aliresearch claims that around half the workforce will be made up of self-employed and freelance workers, putting an end to the eight-hour work day.
By 2046, it is predicted that 80 per cent of global trade will be conducted by small businesses or individuals, enabled by digital platforms.
“2046 may seem like a distant future, but what AliResearch is initiating today, in collaboration with our peers, is nonetheless meaningful,” said Geo Hongbing, dean of Aliresearch and VP of Alibaba Group.
“We are in the midst of a great transformation that requires us to imagine beyond industry boundaries, geographic borders and the limitation of time.”
A report by the Boston Consulting Group, which also presented at the summit, predicted that by 2035 China’s eGDP (digital gross domestic product) will grow to around US$16 trillion, compared with US$1.4 trillion in 2015. Penetration rates are expected to grow from 13 to 48 per cent over the same period.
Alibaba has made headlines this week, lodging a US$2.6 billion dollar bid to privatise Chinese department store network, Intime. Group CEO Daniel Zhang has said the move is the next step in the company’s vision for the future of Chinese retail.
“Our combination with Intime will enable us to tap into the long-term growth potential of a new form of retail in China powered by internet technology and data,” Zhang said.
“We don’t divide the world into real or virtual economies, only the old and the new. Those who cling onto the old ways of retailing will be disrupted, and brick-and-mortar businesses will be able to create value for consumers if they are integrated with the power of mobile reach, real-time consumer insights, and technology capability to improve operating efficiency.”
