Australia and New Zealand’s grocery sector is at a defining moment. Pressure is building from every direction: Rising costs of living, volatile supply chains, margin compression, and increasingly conscious consumers. For many, the instinct is to double down on cost control or short-term commercial wins.

But what if the real opportunity isn’t about tightening further, it’s about working differently?

Our latest white paper reveals a striking insight: Up to $22 billion in value is currently locked within inefficiencies across the ANZ grocery ecosystem. Not in new revenue streams or radical disruption, but in fixing what already exists. The opportunity spans out-of-stocks, waste, and inventory misalignment and represents 6 to 11 per cent of total industry turnover.

This is not an incremental improvement. It’s transformational.

From pressure to possibility

Today’s challenges are well understood. Consumers are trading down, seeking value and transparency. Suppliers are navigating fluctuating input costs across energy, packaging, and logistics. Retailers are balancing affordability with rising cost-to-serve.

Yet these pressures are also exposing a structural truth: Optimising in silos is no longer enough.

Disconnected planning, limited data sharing, and transactional supplier-retailer relationships are no longer fit for purpose in a world that demands agility, resilience, and transparency. The next era of grocery performance will not be defined by individual optimisation, but by ecosystem collaboration.

Where $22 billion in value lies

The opportunity is both simple and significant:

• Out-of-stocks continue to erode billions in lost sales. 
• Waste remains a persistent cost, financially and environmentally. 
• Inventory misalignment ties up working capital while reducing service levels. 

Individually, these challenges are familiar. Collectively, they represent one of the largest untapped value pools in the industry today.

More importantly, the benefits of unlocking this value extend far beyond cost:

• Consumers gain better availability and fairer pricing. 
• Suppliers see more predictable demand and healthier margins. 
• Retailers reduce cost-to-serve while strengthening loyalty. 
• The broader economy benefits from improved food security and sustainability outcomes. 

This is one of the rare opportunities where commercial, consumer, and ESG outcomes align.

The proof already exists

Globally, leading organisations have already demonstrated what’s possible when collaboration replaces competition at the operational level.

• Toyota’s supplier model has set the benchmark for shared efficiency and resilience. 
• Walmart and P&G have redefined replenishment through real-time data sharing. 
• Tesco’s partnership ecosystem has unlocked deeper consumer insight and growth. 
• Carrefour has reduced waste by up to 30 per cent through supplier collaboration. 

The common thread is clear: Trust, transparency, and aligned incentives drive performance.

For ANZ, the opportunity is not to reinvent the wheel, but to adapt and accelerate proven models in a local context.

Digital as the enabler

While collaboration is the foundation, technology is the accelerator. AI-driven forecasting, supply chain control towers, digital twins, and shared data platforms are no longer future concepts. They are practical tools enabling real-time visibility, predictive planning, and coordinated execution.

These technologies allow organisations to move from reactive decision-making to proactive, system-wide optimisation.

But technology alone is not the answer. Without the right operating model, one built on shared data, aligned incentives, and long-term partnerships, digital investments will fall short of their potential.

Breaking the barriers

If the opportunity is so clear, why hasn’t it already been captured?

The barriers are structural and cultural:

• Historically adversarial supplier and retailer relationships. 
• Short-term commercial pressures. 
• Imbalanced power dynamics. 
• Uncertainty around regulatory boundaries. 
• Uneven digital maturity across the ecosystem. 

Addressing these challenges requires more than intent. It requires a deliberate shift in how the industry operates, from transactional to collaborative, from short-term to long-term, from siloed to connected.

Encouragingly, the pathways already exist. Regulatory safe harbours, pre-competitive forums, shared data standards, and scalable digital platforms are all enabling safer, more effective collaboration.

A new Plan A for grocery

The path forward is not complex, but it does require alignment. Retailers, suppliers, industry bodies, regulators, and technology providers each have a role to play in building a more connected, efficient, and sustainable grocery ecosystem.

Because ultimately, this is not about isolated initiatives. It’s about creating a system where:

• Data flows seamlessly. 
• Decisions are made collectively. 
• Value is shared across the ecosystem. 

And where affordability, sustainability, and innovation are not competing priorities, but shared outcomes.

There is no Plan B

The ANZ grocery sector has reached a point where incremental change is no longer enough. The scale of the opportunity and the pressure facing the industry demand a step change in thinking.

Collaboration is not a ‘nice to have’. It is the most effective, and arguably the only, path to unlocking the next wave of value.

There is no Plan B.

• Download the full white paper to explore the $22 billion opportunity, and the practical roadmap to capturing it.