“This is great information.” That was the message I received from a friend who works with a prominent Australian wine brand.
She had just received the results of a promotion run across Victoria and was trying to understand why the campaign performed so well in some areas compared with others.
A quick search led her to our demographic profiles for local areas for the best performing suburbs.
The common theme, it turns out, was demographics. The strongest response came from suburbs that were home to people in similar age groups, income levels, ethnic groups and levels of education.
As Australia’s population grows and changes, retailers have become increasingly sophisticated with how they use demographic and population data to make decisions from product mix and campaign planning to multi-million-dollar location and investment decisions.
Navigating uneven growth patterns
The population of Australia is changing faster than any period in recent history. High levels of overseas migration, a declining birth rate, smaller households and the pipeline of housing development are all having a significant impact on the demographic makeup of our local communities and, therefore, the future demand for retailers’ goods and services.
But of course, that change doesn’t play out evenly in every suburb.
The 2025 demographic outlook for Australian retailers highlights these changes at the national level. But detailed, local area data is the key to understanding how your retail catchment is changing, identifying risks to current locations, and growth opportunities in new locations.
How can retailers anticipate these changes?
While a simple search tells us a lot about who lives in an area currently, in recent years, we’ve come a long way in our ability to accurately forecast how the population of a suburb or retail catchment area will change. Detailed population and housing forecasts for local areas are now available from the National Forecasting Program.
What are the indicators of population growth and demographic change?
Cranes on the skyline are a dead giveaway that an area is going ahead. But in most places, the drivers of growth and change are less visible and require in-depth research and demographic expertise. The key factors our researchers are following closely include:
- What share of Australia’s overall growth will go to each state, territory and region (find our forecast for your state and region here).
- The how the age structure of the population in an area will change.
- The well-established patterns of migration between different places.
- The pipeline of housing development and the impact of local planning controls.
The real-world applications of demographic and population data
How are Australian retailers using this information in practice?
- Sales forecasting
Forecasting future sales relies on two numbers; the average spend per household, and the number of households in your retail catchment (the all-important population multiplier). This short video explains how our clients make this calculation. - Catchment analysis
Our forecasts and demographic information provide unmatched granular detail at the local level, allowing retailers to accurately analyse the demographic profile and forecast growth for their specific trade areas and catchments. - Identify growth hotspots
With nationwide data, we can identify the highest-value locations within a city, region or an entire state based on the demographic profile and forecast growth of different areas. - Location selection
Evaluate the relative value of greenfield opportunities compared with locations in established areas or shopping centres versus high street locations. Read our case study to learn more about how retail analysts use population forecasts to evaluate store locations. - ‘Timing is everything’
In a recent conversation with one of our clients, they told us when it comes to property, location, store refresh and other operational decisions, “timing is everything”. In greenfield locations, purchasing land too early results in significant holding costs. Too late, and they missed the population growth in the area. “Getting that timing right is hugely valuable to our business.” - Product mix
Even if a suburb isn’t growing, it will be changing. Residents’ preferences change as they age in place before suburbs experience demographic change as older populations move out and are replaced by new young families, sometimes from different ethnic backgrounds, such as we see in Preston in the City of Darebin in Melbourne’s North. - Stronger negotiations
From lease renewals to calculating occupancy costs and conducting evidence-based negotiations with developers, independent data allows for a better understanding of the future value of a given location for your business, affording a stronger negotiating position with other stakeholders.
Book a consultation
We help retailers in two main ways: providing detailed population data for your own analysis and offering expert advice to identify growth opportunities for your business.
If you’re planning the next step for your business in 2025, learn more about our work and schedule an introductory call with our team to learn more about how we can help you plan with confidence.