In China, the pace of year-on-year retail sales growth in March reverted to late-2025 form, weak but positive at 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Retail sales of goods rose by 1.5 per cent, while revenues from catering increased 2.9 per cent. For the first quarter as a whole, retail merchandise sales were up 2.2 per cent and catering 4.2 per cent. Strongest categories in the first quarter were telecommunications equipment, tobacco and liquor, gold/silver/jewellery and apparel. Weakest were motor vehic
les, home improvement and home appliances.
In a kind of ‘China first’ policymaking environment (and good news for retailers), the government is set to restructure the economy to make it less reliant on the external sector this year, which should mean more stimulus for domestic retail spending. Plans are in the works to give both household spending and household incomes a shot in the arm, with expansion of the trade-in subsidy scheme, boosts to minimum wages and expansion of the social safety net. The stimulus is designed to close income gaps and to get high-energy-consuming appliances and devices out of circulation, replacing them with energy-conserving ones. That lowers household energy bills over the longer haul, and with energy prices currently under upward pressure, that cannot be a bad thing.
Is the appliance trade-in scheme still working?
A material part of the stimulus programme is the extension of the trade-in subsidy scheme, which has been running since mid-2024. For 2026, the government has allocated almost US$9 billion for trade-in subsidies. This year, the programme has been broadened to include more digital and smart products. Under this scheme, purchases of smartphones, tablets and smart watches priced below about US$860 receive a 15 per cent subsidy of the sales price. For example, a mid-range Huawei smartphone would earn the purchaser a subsidy of US$40–US$80. The programme seems to be working for these kinds of products, with sales of telecommunications equipment up by more than 25 per cent in March and more than 20 per cent in the first quarter of the year.
For other categories, things are not working out so well, and diminishing returns have set in. Six categories of home appliances, which were the initial focus of the scheme, remain eligible for a 15 per cent subsidy of up to US$215 per item. The categories covered are refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers and water heaters. To get energy-efficient products into mainstream household use, eligibility for the subsidy depends on the purchased product meeting China’s highest energy-efficiency standard. However, the programme appears to have stalled in terms of its effectiveness for home appliances: sales in the category are flatlining so far this year. Consumers had already traded in 129 million appliances by the end of 2025.
Changing of the guard on the mall’s ground floors
There is also a trade-in subsidy programme for vehicles, with the subsidy calculated as a percentage of the new vehicle’s price. This is targeted to benefit EV sales, which may get an additional boost from the fallout of the war in the Middle East. They need it: vehicle sales have plunged almost 10 per cent this year.
Indeed, the EV showrooms that occupied prime ground-floor space in many Chinese malls are closing, making way for a new generation of tenants. That’s partly because they are not generating a lot of sales (which flow through to mall rents) and partly because most of the brands now have sufficient exposure in the market not to require expensive showroom space. They are being replaced on the mall’s ground floors by trendy tenants like collectables (Pop Mart), athleisure brands like Lululemon, Nike, and Anta, and, trendiest of all, robotics brands like Unitree and UBTech, which engage visitors with their humanoid and quadruped robots.
Leading priorities of the Chinese consumer: first, value, second, speed
Walmart and other global retailers operating in China have been telling investors for ages that Chinese consumers have hit the stop button on lavish self-indulgence. Value for money is first and foremost. Perceiving the shift and taking advantage of it has been one of Walmart’s hallmarks in China. The company has been using Sam’s Club membership and e-commerce as twin drivers of growth there. Sam’s Club in China is enjoying a 35 per cent year-on-year increase in membership income during the quarter ending January 31. E-commerce sales were up 28 per cent and represent more than 50 per cent of sales in the country. Net sales growth was just shy of 20 per cent, and comparable-store sales up by a sturdy 10.7 per cent.
The Chinese also value speed, and Walmart’s local partner, Meituan, has been so effective at delivering at lightning speed on China’s traffic-choked roads that it has attracted the ire of regulators, who have identified online delivery vehicles (usually motorcycles) as traffic hazards. Going forward, Chinese regulators will take an increasingly tough stance to strike a balance between safety and delivery speed, including making the retailer and the delivery platform itself responsible for driver transgressions.
But there are still some things they splash the cash on
At the same time, as the Chinese watch their money carefully, there are key areas where they are still apt to splash out. In a recent report, property consultant Savills singled out health as an item that resonated across all demographics. “Consumers’ focus on health remains strong and cuts across age groups, locations and income levels.” Appropriately, Savills defines health broadly as an ecosystem that encompasses not just the usual wellness categories (e.g., pharmacies, health-focused food) but also sportswear, sporting goods, massage, spas, yoga and even meditation. Moreover, the report’s authors point out that wellness tenancies in malls lend themselves well to special events such as “parent-and-child sports camps, health talks and wellbeing workshops.” This makes them ideal tenancies to integrate mall retail and services with the community.
Accessible luxury is also a durable spending category, including small gold accessories, fragrances and designer toys. The Chinese will still pamper themselves, but not too much.
Further reading: Asian authorities finally crack down on dangerous delivery drivers