Global online retail sales tipped to reach US$6.8 trillion by 2028

(Source: Bigstock)

Total global online retail sales are expected to grow from US$4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028, a report by research and advisory firm Forrester shows.

Online retail sales will record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9 per cent during the five-year period, according to the Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast report, which covers data in 40 countries globally.

Despite the growth, 76 per cent of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028, which Forrester says reflects the importance of omnichannel strategies for retailers.

In Asia-Pacific, online retail sales for the top five countries – China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia – are forecast to increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028. In Southeast Asia’s top six countries – Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore – retail e-commerce sales will rise from $93 billion in 2023 to $193 billion in 2028.

In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28 per cent of total US retail sales. Canadian online retail sales will reach $83 billion, while Latin America’s top six countries – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile – will see online retail sales growing to $192 billion by 2028. 

In Western Europe, online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028. Online retail sales for the top five Eastern European countries – Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary – will reach $126 billion in 2028.

“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester.

As the growth varies vastly by region, retailers should thoroughly understand their priority markets and tailor their strategies appropriately, Miglani added.

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