Confidence among businesses and consumers in Australia is moving in different directions, according to the latest market research update by Roy Morgan.

But businesses are still at their lowest confidence levels on record.

It comes during a trying time for retail, in which the industry has dealt with global supply shocks, changes in federal legislation, interest rate hikes, and a series of significant changes to the country’s tax system as announced in May by the treasurer, Jim Chalmers.

In recent weeks, a series of retailers ranging from e-commerce hot shots to storied brick-and-mortar institutions have announced shock closures. Many of these have credited the aforementioned business climate as the final nail in the coffin.

But Roy Morgan’s research says that there could be green shoots of recovery. But nothing yet felt by the consumer.

In June, Australia’s business confidence recovered by 1.4 points to 77.5; Roy Morgan says this is still “well below” the neutral number of 100. Consumer confidence fell by 1.2 points to 74.7 on the same scale. 

This rebound among businesses, however, does little to negate the bigger picture.

The June-ending quarter of the year has a “record” quarterly low of 76.7, down 15.5 points from the previous quarter. The September 2020 quarter – the prior lowest-on-record period – had a low of 84.3.

Roy Morgan said that the retail trade sector hit a low of 66.5 during the quarter; the third-lowest in its data set.

Overall confidence levels are the lowest in WA, at 59.6, and highest in NSW, at a below-neutral 83.4.